What’s Going On?
March 14, 2025
TWO THINGS jumped to mind as I watched the footage last week of the American Airlines jet in Denver, its engine on fire, passengers evacuating onto the wing.
The first thing was the recklessness of the people who brought their carry-ons with them as they evacuated. Fewer things are more stupid, or more dangerous, particularly when there’s a fire. We’ve seen this before, and I’m sure we’ll see it again. Airlines and regulators need to come up with something.
Second thing was a wave of consternation. Here we go again, I thought. Jeju Air, Azerbaijan, Washington D.C., Toronto. Now this. Another incident, another round of media hype, another feeding frenzy on social media. Here come the emails asking, “What’s going on?”
Whatever it is, it’s bad enough that, according to airline execs, the demand for air travel is softening. How much of this is economics-related rather than fear-related is hard to quantify, but the CEOs believe the latter is part of it.
This is frustrating, because on the whole flying remains remarkably safe. Much, much safer than it was in decades past.
I don’t mean to downplay recent mishaps too much; the Potomac crash, especially, was tragic, and there’s no denying that aspects of our system need funding and shoring up. But what are we actually dealing with? Are these incidents symptomatic of something dangerously broken? Are they warning signs of catastrophes to come?
I’m not sensing that. At worst, we can see it as a correction. Perhaps what’s surprising isn’t the spate of accidents, but rather how long we’d gone without such a spate. Perhaps we were too lucky for too long. Around two million people travel by air every day of the week, aboard tens of thousands of flights. The idea of perfect safety is foolish.
What the traveling public needs more than anything is a sense of perspective. For that, I recommend a trip through the history books, a dig through the crash chronicles of a generation ago, and the generation before that. Many Americans, younger ones especially, have no knowledge, or no memory, of how bad things used to be. From the dawn of the jet age in the 1950s, through the early 2000s, deadly air disasters were soberingly common, year after year after year.
And I don’t mean engine fires where people lined up on the wing. I’m talking about major accidents with, in many cases, fatalities in the hundreds.
Just how common? In 1985, the worst year on record, there were 27 crashes — an average of one every two weeks. This included two of the deadliest air disasters in history (JAL flight 123 and Air India 182), which occurred within sixty days of each other and killed over eight hundred people. And that’s not counting the incredible hijacking saga of TWA flight 847, which also happened in ’85.
The year 1974 saw nine disasters, including a TWA bombing and an Eastern Airlines crash three days apart. In 1973, when a Delta jet crashed in Boston killing 89 people, the accident was recorded on page two of the New York Times, below the fold. Ten crashes occurred between the fall of 1988 and the fall of 1989, three of them terrorist bombings.
As recently as the year 2000, we saw eleven crashes in which a dozen or more people perished, including the Air France Concorde disaster and Alaska Airlines flight 261, plus a cargo jet crash in California in which a former colleague of mine died.
This doesn’t happen anymore. Primarily through advances in training and technology, we’ve engineered away what used to be the most common causes of accidents. The number of planes in the sky has tripled since the 1980s, while the accident rate has plummeted. The events of the last several weeks, however unfortunate, hardly nudge the big picture data. Neither would another crash — even a big one, knock on wood.
It’s not that we’re spoiled, exactly. But we’ve grown accustomed to the rarity of disaster. And the result is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, we’re a lot safer. On the other hand, we’re primed to overreact when something goes wrong.
This is human nature, I suppose. When an engine catches fire, it grabs our attention. Fair enough. What it shouldn’t do, however, is cause you to call off your business trip or cancel your vacation.
Photo courtesy of Unsplash
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25 Responses to “What’s Going On?”
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I don’t like to play “but what about”, but what have you heard about
(real media, not social ones) report that Musk and his minions have declared that the very large Verizon contract with the FAA to completely overhaul and modernize the atc hardware/software is too expensive and will take so long that it can be done with Starlink satellites.
I like testing. I like system redundancy.
Fatal car crash statistics 2024
The number of fatal car crashes in each state has risen significantly over the last several years. From 2018 to 2022, the number of deadly accidents in the United States increased by more than 16% — from 36,835 fatal car crashes in 2018 to 42,795 fatal car crashes in 2022.
https://www.usatoday.com/money/blueprint/auto-insurance/fatal-car-crash-statistics/
Fatal car crashes aren’t big news because they are so common. Airplane crashes get lots of headlines because they are so rare.
“a correction”? we’ve gone too long without a crash, so it’s cool to have a dozen? you cannot be serious.
the controllers have been overworked since Reagan; Boeing made a crucial sensor optional; 47 has fired dozens of new-to-the-job controllers, and we’ve no clue about maintenance practices.
this is not the time to rest on one’s laurels.
Is there any wood to knock on in contemporary airliners?
Response to Jack Palmer, March 17 6.14pm.
Maybe the passenger sitting at that exit just opened the door themselves. How would a FA sitting elsewhere be able to stop them?
Also I don’t care about someone taking their handbag out, but if anyone took luggage fron overhead locker, then they were risking other passenger’s lives. Blaming other people for the accident happening doesn’t change that.
Thanks for a thoughtful and reasoned perspective. I fly worldwide regularly for my work, and I know that it is still far safer than driving my car. Having said that, I am more than a little distressed by the Musk minions who seem intent on destroying all parts of our government without any actual knowledge of what each agency does to ensure the public safety. Tearing things apart is pretty easy, but building the foundations of public safety is a longer process than these folks realize—or even seem to care about. I frankly expect more problems in the short term—at least until some of the mindless destruction is brought under control—-if that is even possible. Flying will still be safer than driving, but I fear and suspect that we may see more ugly situations before things stabilize….
What if my carry on is an animal, say a cat? I would be evacuating with him in his carrier. Is that allowed? Just curious. Thank you.
Here we go again,
Let’s FIRST blame the passengers who have the audacity to flee to burning airliner with their handbag…
how about instead blaming the manufacturer, the airline, the pilots, the crew, the maintenance guys or the accountants, anyone else rather than the passengers whose only fault was to purchase a plane ticket.
The FIRST thing which came to MY mind was , who is the stupid crew member who let people escape on a wing full of fuel above a burning engine? how about that one, Captain Smith?
I’m not thrilled about flying next month, but put in context, I encoutered coin-fed life insurance machines in the airport before the first flight I ever took. That’s how bad it was. As for following evacuation instructions, I think I’m the only one on the entire flight plane who listens and looks for the exits.
In the Denver incident, shouldn’t the flight attendants have prevented people from evacuating through the over-wing exits? There was no way down if the fire spread, except jumping.
I’ve flown GA in the SF Bay Area since 2000. I just quit. It’s clear which way this is going and I’m not going there with it.
“The problem with carry-ons going out the door must be flight attendant training.”
Ugh. Tell me you’ve never done crowd control without telling me you’ve never done crowd control.
Let’s assume a forceful FA can get people to comply. After the first 30 or so bags are ditched in the empty row adjacent to the evacuation portal, there isn’t going to be any more room to ditch the 31st bag in that same row. And the line of people behind the offending person aren’t going to make room for backwards flow necessary for the offender to ditch his bag in some other row. So then what?
In crowded and tight spaces, as most of economy on planes is these days, there is limited ability for anyone unwilling to shoot the offending person to force them to do anything they simply do not want to do. FAs can’t even manage to keep unruly passengers from doing all sorts of antisocial and violent behavior on planes not experiencing an emergency without other passengers’ help… but somehow they can just be trained to do so in an emergency? Sure.
Re comment #1 by Lee Taplinger: “…while saying Put your bag over there NOW! You’ll get it later.”
But: *will* they get it later? What if fire consumes the plane including your precious laptop or whatever, plus everyone else’s? I’m wondering what happens then. I suppose this is as good an argument as any for backing up all your stuff (or is it all backed up automatically in the cloud?)…
– not-so-tech-savvy person here.
The problem with carry-ons going out the door must be flight attendant training. First, make it part of the pre-flight instructions. Then, when an emergency exit door or slide is opened, it’s not like all the FAs are the first ones out or are up front chatting with the pilots, they’re at the exits helping passengers out. They can block people from going out while saying Put your bag over there NOW! You’ll get it later. If a passenger is bigger than the FA and pushes them out of the way, they’ll be arrested for assault once the emergency is over.
Situational Awareness sounds like the core issue, with DCA. Experienced Helo pilots have commented that accruing flight time is very difficult for pilots unless active warfare, and practice Instrument ops are the exception not the rule. Imagine being “highly experienced” at 1,000hrs in that airspace. Very tragic.
While agreeing that it is foolish to take your carryon during an evacuation, I have to wonder: How long does it take the airline to get your bag back to you after an accident? Hours? Days? Weeks? You never see it again and should of course be grateful to be alive?
Gimlet Winglet nails it, “Normalization of Deviance” coined by Capt Pettit permitting the unsafe to become ordinary is precisely what happened in DCA. No urgency given to observing strictly defined corridors.
As for SWA go around, that sums up the diff in quality of training.
Training outside 121/135 adjacent Airline facilities is so focused on air work but just barely mentions critical ground work. Have seen 135 crews- Captains, youthful chief pilots use EFB for anything but closely monitoring SA on EFB Taxi charts. Simple identifications, verbalization & confirmation “approaching taxiway B to turn right onto F Clear left”. Response “Clear right” …. Should be engrained in ground school, before the sim.
Whether nationwide companies or Mom & Pop shops, if NavData is not part of the integrated FI Display – then EFB’s must be displayed continuously for SA just like the airlines. No excuses – whether Chief pilot, Dir of Safety or new guy so stoked about mastery of the FMS /Magenta line. Unacceptable, I’ve seen it all.
Thanks, Patrick. Always appreciate your measured perspective.
Mike Scanlan’s idea won’t fully solve the problem because of bags under seats.
I’d suggest a $5,000 fine per person caught doing so. After the first iteration, people will learn. Mostly.
I think you are a bit too optimistic, although I agree that flying is safe, but now that politics is becoming an issue–DEI–, who knows.
Once again, Patrick Smith is a voice of reason in a country that does not do well with reason. Well written and on point.
In my ideal airline industry, we would get rid of ALL overhead bins. There would be NOTHING carried on board except for what would fit under a seat: A briefcase, handbag, small duffel or a laptop case. Everything else would have to be checked, and if that meant that the fares had to go up by $50 or so to cover the present additional fee, so be it.
I realize that this would be only a partial solution to the problem you mention here, but having people grab a small item before evacuating would be better than having them drag their wheeled “spinner” rollaboards onto the wing or down the slide. Also, under normal circumstances it would eliminate the bottlenecks in the aisle that occur during boarding and de-boarding and make the cabin environment more civil. It’s time to ditch the old “People Express” carry-on policy that allows everything but the kitchen sink in the cabin!
The difference now is that people are recording the event and live-streaming. Prior to the social media era the burned up engine might be shown in the news report, perhaps an interview or two, then move on to the next story. Seeing the video from the gate next to the fire is somewhat disturbing.
The answer to the first part of this has always been automatic locking mechanisms on the overhead doors centrally controlled by any member of the crew. One press of a button and they’re all locked down and can’t be opened. EVERYONE OUT. This would solve a handful of problems other than emergencies for an incremental cost of what… $3,000 per plane?
What catches my attention is a helo rising up from below on a plane correctly on their short final approach and putting their rotor through the belly of the aircraft. I’ve said before (looking at it in retrospect) that was caused by a normalization of deviance situation that stood for decades. What I would hope is that among the lessons learned from that DCA event is every commercial airport in the country taking a hard look at their routine operations looking for their own normalization of deviance that needs proactive addressing. Not finding any NoD is fine, just, in the next three months they should look.
And I say this as one who completely agrees with you on the decades long trend towards significant improvement in civilian transport flight safety. But no crisis should go to waste, now is the time for every airport to use it as a justification to look for “could something this stupid happen here?”