Haystack Revisited
January 5, 2026
The hunt is on again for Malaysia Airlines flight 370, the Boeing 777 that vanished somewhere in the Indian Ocean more than twelve years ago.
I don’t know where Vegas has the odds, but I wouldn’t expect the plane to be found. There’s just too much ocean, and not enough data telling the searchers where to focus. Whatever advanced technology is at their disposal, they’ll need to be very lucky. They’re looking for an object about two-hundred feet long, thousands of feet down in the dark, somewhere in an immense expanse of ocean.
One thing that might help them is that the jet is likely in one or two large pieces. Its profile should be distinct, even from far above. We know this because there was no debris field. It’s nearly certain that the plane didn’t crash. Rather, it was “landed” on the water, and subsequently sank, more or less intact.
A Boeing 777 in an out-of-control impact — or even a semi-controlled one — would have broken up and produced thousands of fragments: aircraft parts, human remains, luggage, and so on. Much of this debris would have sunk, but plenty would not have. Eventually, borne by currents, it would’ve washed up.
But it didn’t. And the small number of pieces that did wash ashore are consistent not with a crash, but with a controlled and deliberate ditching. The flaperon discovered in 2015 on Reunion Island, for example, and the trailing edge flap that washed up on Mauritius. These parts themselves are evidence enough; a thorough post-mortem on them reveals even more. The forensics are complicated, but they’re solid. Use your Google and check out the analysis by former Canadian crash investigator Larry Vance. These pieces tell a story.
Early on, I was open to a number of theories popular at the time: fire, fumes, depressurization, and so on. Accidents. I’ve come around since then. My opinion is based on the evidence, both as it exists and, more importantly, doesn’t exist. The absence of the myriad flotsam a full-on crash would have produced is to me the smoking gun. The only plausible explanation for a lack of debris is that the plane was purposely scuttled, presumably by the captain.
Which, to be honest, makes me wonder: why spend all this time and money? What do we learn by locating the wreckage? It all seems pretty clear.
I’ve been saying from the start that we should prepare for the possibility of it not being found. It happens this way sometimes. If it helps you feel better, the air crash annals contain numerous unsolved accidents.
What makes this one different, maybe, is how we’ve come to expect easy and fast solutions to pretty much everything these days, with a fetishized belief that technology can answer any question and fix any problem. Oh sure, radios, transponders, emergency locator transmitters, GPS, real-time position streaming, satellite tracking. But all of that is fallible, one way or another.
Sometimes nature wins. And that’s what this is about, ultimately: nature. The immensity of the ocean versus the comparative speck of a 777. It’s out there somewhere, in the ink-black darkness beneath thousands of feet of seawater. We’ll probably never find it.
Related Story:
THE RIDDLE MAY NOT BE DEEP
Photos courtesy of Unsplash.
People say the Malaysia Airlines logo looks like a tropical fish. In fact the design is inspired by the “wau,” a traditional Malaysian kite. Specifically it’s the “wau bulan,” or moon kite.
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19 Responses to “Haystack Revisited”
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Thanks very much for laying all of this out in layman’s terms. I’ve been reading your stuff for a while, and rarely comment, just wanted to acknowledge your rational approach to problem solving like this. Keep doing what you’re doing.
Because of the nature of the disappearance I think it was Zahari’s intentions to embarrass the Malaysian government for the longest time possible. Malaysia will always be the topic of MH-370 until it is found.
Speaking of MH370–in bad taste but pretty funny (sorry for fugly URL):
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fi-bought-this-lego-set-but-it-has-no-parts-i-rate-it-0-370-v0-b3ha95icvw3f1.jpeg%3Fwidth%3D640%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D4a3fc5db2ac6891a3a852d960c881ca81b58d240
Here’s an alternate theory (and basically trolling) that’s not discussed much. The presumed location of MH370 is based on a series “pings” from engine telemetry. But, as I understand it, each of those pings could resolve to two different locations on Earth. The alternate locations lead to somewhere in the ‘stans: Pakistan, Afghanistan, et al.
So what’s the possibility that it actually went that direction? If the transponder was deactivated, it would show on radar as an unidentified craft. If a nation-state was involved, they could easily cover up its presence.
Far-fetched conspiracy theory trolling? Probably.
I’ve always found this theory silly. The plane went to Pakistan? Afghanistan? WHY? For what purposes?
Not to mention, to get there it would’ve overflown other countries, and yet was never detected? And how did parts of the wing end up on beaches in the Indian Ocean?
The whole thing is nonsensical.
I think the captain was the cause of Malaysia 370’s disappearance.
I’ll betcha if a really deep dive is done into his background—not the perfunctory examination that has so far occurred—some skeletons will be found rattling their ribs. Either the guy was suicidal (in which case, a controlled landing or ditching would not have occurred—a terminal-velocity dive would be “appropriate”), or was carrying out an act of terror, in which losses to the souls-on-board and the aircraft were to be minimized. As Captain Sullenberger demonstrated, a survivable ditching is not only possible, but can be deliberately executed by a highly-skilled pilot.
This thing smells a lot like Air India 171…and I don’t mean the odor of burning wreckage. 🙁
Thanks very much, Patrick. I did not realize the bit about unconscious. Have a great day, and I appreciate you taking the time to respond.
I of course defer to Patrick, but I don’t understand how to reconcile the comment that fuel exhaustion would have caused the 777 to plummet and break up with the planes that ran out of fuel and then glided to their destinations with safe landings in Manitoba and the Azores. Those planes I think were a little smaller (767 and I think A320), but I wouldn’t have thought that would make a difference?
Those planes were PILOTED to landing. It was a glide, yes, but one that the pilots were controlling and managing. If MH370 was out of fuel, the presumption is the pilots were not conscious. In which case even a semi-stable impact would have shattered the aircraft into pieces.
I share the opinion/ analysis expressed by you and Larry Vance that MH 370 was an intentional, controlled ditching. But weren’t previous searches based on the theory of fuel starvation or other uncontrolled crash into the ocean? If so, then the search parameters were based on a faulty theory. Let’s hope that the search parameters this time are based on the controlled ditching theory and thus will be far more likely to be successful. I am glad the search has resumed and hope we will find answers. Thank you for writing about MH370.
Patrick the Pilot/Moderator doesn’t know where “Vegas” has the odds (perhaps in Las Vegas?). That’s okay, Polymarket has odds on this burning question:
https://polymarket.com/event/mh370-underwater-wreckage-found-by-june-30-2026
A lot of what goes on in prediction markets depends on the assumptions being made and how restrictive they are. And yes, Polymarket and others consider airlines mostly regarding valuation…not silly questions such as, “How late will my flight be?”
You can try to learn more about prediction markets at Wikipedia. Your head may explode.
Solved.
Apparently Larry is unaware that Boeing Cargo extinguishers provide a significant spray of Halon initially – then become timed bursts for up to additional duration of 6hrs. Fire control systems are designed to provide suppressant suitable for an oceanic crossing least the 777 be mid flight on Pacific or Atlantic route. (The 777 is a long haul jet after all. )
Absolutely conceivable that black toxic electrical smoke engulfed the entire cabin & cockpit exceeding the aircraft fuel. Also full pressure, undiluted pilots “emergency 100%“ Oxygen – is not much at all.
The craft flew until fuel was exhausted and no, it did not necessarily mean it was all “on Fire”.
Systems matter.
No. If the plane continued to the point of fuel exhaustion, it would have plummeted into the sea and broken into thousands of pieces. We know that didn’t happen. Explain to me how a 777, once it had run out of fuel, could gently glide to the surface on its own.
This is Larry Vance explaining his conclusions. Those desiring more detail can read his book, which is pretty good.
How there can still be any “controversy” about MH370 is the real mystery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3NQ1jCxBig&ab_channel=AlgonquinCollegeWaterfrontCampus
Have researchers established beyond doubt that the airplane ended up in the ocean? Is there evidence enough to support that? What if the plane was landed in a remote base where all the paxes were taken hostage – or disposed of – in exchange for political concessions? Those pieces found on beaches could have been planted. The 777 could be sitting inside a hangar o underground as scrap. Sure, this sounds far-fetched, but until the end of the ball of yarn is found (if ever) all possibilities are open. My fear is that the death of all aboard, bar a few crew, is a given.
https://www.google.com/gasearch?q=ups%20747%20crash%20lithium%20batteries&udm=7&source=sh/x/gs/m2/5#fpstate=ive&ip=1&vld=cid:2b9786ba,vid:Y50saxfTqQA,st:0
Please let science and global aviation safety experts have the last word… not internet trolls.
Every single 121 carrier spends millions educating air crews and trying to prevent the enormous loss of life on another Malay 370…
I agree with your analysis of this, and that murder-suicide is by far the most likely scenario… but there’s one chilling thought I can’t get out of my head every time I hear “controlled ditching” or “water landing”… that it was a survivable crash.
Why would the captain go to these great lengths to disappear the aircraft when every other murderous pilot has done a sudden nose dive? I’m not a mental health professional, but I do know that the longer you give someone to think about a suicide, and the more complex barriers they have to overcome, the less likely they are to go through with it. This would be one of the longer and more complex known public suicides… all to lead up to a crash that might not actually kill the captain. I don’t see why someone who could figure out how to disappear a 777 couldn’t also figure out how to arrange a rendezvous craft at a set of coordinates.
Again, I know its not probable (and there’s no evidence of it… but there’s no evidence of a lot of things here), but possible enough that this theory seems under-discussed.
Last thought – I’ve heard there’s some evidence the airplane was spiraling or circling in its final minutes… what if it was around a designated meeting spot?
Perhaps more investment into mental health issues/treatment and “knowing your employees” would be a better use of resources (though I understand most of those still persisting with the search are more like treasure hunters and romanticizers of the “Titanic”)??
Sure might have helped with Germanwings flight 9525, Malaysia 370 and China Eastern 5735.