August 21, 2023   Near-Miss Hysteria?

Just a quick comment on this week’s New York Times article about the uptick in near-collisions between commercial jets, both aloft and on runways.

The story is alarmist in spots, but overall it’s not wrong. The dynamics are pretty simple: we have increasingly crowded skies and a heavily understaffed air traffic control system. In no way is this a healthy combination.

Still it’s not as scary as it seems. The most important thing to remember is that more planes are flying than ever before. Thus it stands to reason that the number of near-misses or runway incursions will be higher than it used to be. The critical stat, which is obscured by other data, some of it anecdotal, is how many incidents, and of what severity, we are seeing per departure. Is this number up or down? I don’t really know. The article itself acknowledges that it’s unclear to what extent a higher number of incidents is due to better data collection, while FAA statistics show no significant change in the frequency of on-the-ground runway incursions over the last several years.

If, worst case, we are less safe, statistically, bear in mind that less safe and unsafe are different things. I fly for a living; I’m in the air all the time. Am I concerned? Absolutely. And the fact that we allowed our ATC system to become so understaffed is a national shame. Yet another case of terrible decision-making induced by COVID. But do I feel the skies are unsafe, or that a catastrophe is imminent? No.

Beware, also, of terms like “near miss.” This is a subjective expression that can mean different things, most of which aren’t as frightening as the words imply.

Lastly, while the threat of ground collisions is a tougher problem to tackle, an airborne collision is an extremely unlikely event. Modern commercial planes are equipped with sophisticated anti-collision technology, which is always there as a safeguard in the event of an air traffic control error.

Contrails photo by the author.